Water Management – Classroom Presentations
CLEAN CURRENTS 2026
Time: 2:30 PM - 3:30 PM
Day: 9/23/2026
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Details about each presentation and the speakers are below:
In this session:
Developing an Advanced Hydrologic Forecast System to Inform Reservoir Operations
Hot Dams! Operational Challenges and Opportunities on the Drought-Stricken Lower Colorado River
Applying NAS Recommendations for PMP Modernization: Insights Incorporating Probability Estimates and Climate Change Projections
Developing an Advanced Hydrologic Forecast System to Inform Reservoir Operations (Salt River Project)
Presented by Jacob Richardson, Salt River Project
The Salt River Project (SRP) operates seven reservoirs and 270 groundwater wells to deliver approximately 700,000 acre-feet of water annually to a large portion of metropolitan Phoenix. The Salt and Verde watersheds that supply surface water to the SRP reservoirs stretch across central Arizona, encompassing approximately 13,000 square miles with a wide range of climates. SRP manages the reservoirs for the safety of dams and to assure a reliable water supply for water users in the Phoenix metropolitan area, as well as providing 265 MW of generation capacity from hydropower facilities on the Salt River.
To ensure a reliable supply of water, SRP has invested considerable effort to develop and operationalize water supply forecasts, both for short-term operations and long-term drought planning. This presentation will focus on SRP's latest project to develop a watershed forecast and reservoir operations tool (OST), done in collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation under a WaterSMART Applied Science grant. To date, SRP has relied on separate forecasting products and modeling tools to manage and operate for their various objectives.
Under the project, SRP developed a near real-time OST capable of predicting changes to lake levels based on a continuous runoff simulation for the Salt and Verde rivers. This enhances SRP's ability to analyze and react to forecasted hydrological events in the watersheds that impact SRP and their stakeholders' operations and infrastructure. The OST forecasts streamflow from 48 hours to 2 weeks out at specified locations that have a direct impact on reservoir operations and will inform SRP's operations, which include flood mitigation, water supply releases, and hydropower generation. This information will allow an early response to potential adverse flooding caused by storm events or landscape changes created by wildfire, promoting better communication and coordination of flood-related releases and water quality issues.
The platform developed under this project is envisioned to be leveraged to further enhance SRP's ability to inform operations and planning using forecasts. For example, SRP is currently collaborating with NASA's Western Water Availability Office to explore opportunities for incorporating the latest remote sensing data into the OST to enhance forecasting accuracy. The OST could also be used to inform future operational considerations of the planned 1,000 to 2,000 MW Salt River Pumped Storage Project.
Hot Dams! Operational Challenges and Opportunities on the Drought-Stricken Lower Colorado River (Bureau of Reclamation)
Presented by Mark Cook, Bureau of Reclamation
Learn about the pros and cons of operating and maintaining dams on the Lower Colorado River and what it takes to successfully navigate issues like high ambient temperatures, reduced water deliveries, low reservoirs, and increasing solar penetration competition.
Applying NAS Recommendations for PMP Modernization: Insights Incorporating Probability Estimates and Climate Change Projections (Applied Weather Associates)
Presented by Bill Kappel, Applied Weather Associates
In June 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine published a report with findings and recommendations for modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation. These recommendations address the long-outdated series of Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs), with the most recent versions developed in the 1970s to 1990s. Key suggestions include adopting probabilistic approaches and evaluating the impacts of climate change on PMP depths and frequencies.
Fortunately, Applied Weather Associates (AWA) has conducted PMP studies for over 20 years, covering much of the United States. These studies have advanced the science and methods for calculating PMP, incorporating annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates and assessing potential climate change effects on both PMP and AEP. These elements have been integrated into several recent site-specific and statewide PMP studies, serving as practical examples of implementing the NAS recommendations.
This presentation will present recent results from multiple statewide studies (Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Michigan, Ohio, Nebraska, Arizona, and Hawaii), comparing deterministic PMP values with probabilistic (AEP-based) estimates and climate change projections. Results will be discussed by storm type, duration, and area size. Additionally, a summary of hundreds of climate change evaluations focused on extreme precipitation will illustrate projected changes by duration, season, and location.
Understanding these aspects and reviewing results from studies across the United States highlights the value of incorporating probabilistic and climate-informed processes in PMP development, thereby supporting the broader modernization of PMP estimation.
