Water Management – Poster Presentations
CLEAN CURRENTS 2026
Time: 3:45 PM - 4:45 PM
Day: 9/24/2026
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Details about each presentation and the speakers are below:
In this session:
Double Mass Analysis for Energy Estimation
When Channels, Not Turbines, Set the Limit: Modeling Discharge Capacity in an International Boundary Water
Double Mass Analysis for Energy Estimation (Hatch Associates Consultants, Ltd.)
Presented by Adam Pack, Hatch Associates Consultants, Ltd
Accurate long-term generation forecasting is essential for hydropower planning, investment prioritization, and operational reliability. This presentation introduces an application of Double Mass Analysis (DMA), a classical hydrologic consistency tool, adapted to estimating long-term generation at hydroelectric facilities. The methodology described here was designed for use across dozens of facilities of varying ages, configurations, and data quality conditions, enabling a consistent, transparent approach to generation estimates.
DMA traditionally compares cumulative flow and cumulative response (runoff) to detect inconsistencies. In this application, cumulative monthly generation is plotted against cumulative mean monthly river flow, allowing analysts to assess hydrologic nonstationarity, identify breakpoints, and verify the stability of long-term records. When a stable relationship is confirmed, the regression slope represents the effective generation factor used to project future generation. This approach provides a means of validating or correcting generation records, flagging periods affected by outages, structural changes, or watershed alterations.
This methodology offers a replicable, scalable framework for hydropower owners interested in strengthening the statistical defensibility of their generation forecasts, especially where historical data are incomplete or affected by equipment and operational changes, or where tight budgets prohibit detailed modeling.
When Channels, Not Turbines, Set the Limit: Modeling Discharge Capacity in an International Boundary Water (Kleinschmidt Associates)
Presented by Jennifer Jones, Kleinschmidt Associates
Many international boundary waters require coordinated regulation between the United States and Canada to meet treaty-mandated water-level and discharge requirements. For a project located along the U.S.-Canada border, a century-old treaty governs lake elevations and downstream releases, including a required minimum discharge of 1,330.9 m³/s (47,000 cfs) once the lake reaches elevation 323.4 m (1,061.0 ft). Two hydroelectric generating stations serve as the primary outlets from this lake to the downstream river and play a central role in meeting these binational obligations.
This presentation summarizes a comprehensive 2D hydraulic analysis completed using HEC-RAS to evaluate whether the combined discharge capacity of both generating stations can meet treaty-mandated flows under current hydraulic, operational, and channel morphology conditions. The model incorporated high-resolution bathymetry, recent survey data, and detailed structural geometry. A critical component of the study was calibration of modeled water surface elevations at high flows, using available historical data and operational records to ensure realistic representation of hydraulic controls, tailwater conditions, and system behavior at and above treaty thresholds.
Model results demonstrate that upstream channel hydraulics, natural constrictions, and tailwater submergence significantly influence the total discharge that can be safely and reliably conveyed. At the treaty-defined lake elevation, the combined modeled discharge capacity of the two generating stations falls slightly below the required minimum flow. Findings were presented to generating station owners and binational agency representatives to support a shared technical understanding and coordinated decision-making.
Key takeaways for attendees include practical approaches for calibrating 2D hydraulic models at high flows, identifying non-structural discharge limitations in regulated systems, and communicating complex modeling results to multi-owner and international stakeholders. The study demonstrates that natural channel morphology, not just infrastructure, determines regulatory compliance. It offers a robust framework for assessing operational strategies and future improvements for high-flow conveyance, strengthening the basis for binational regulatory discussions and coordinated management of shared water systems.
